Eciding On Media And Measuring Effectiveness

After choosing the message, the advertiser's next task is to choose media to carry it. The steps here are deciding on desired reach, frequency, and impact; choosing among major media types; selecting specific media vehicles; deciding on media timing; and deciding on geographical media allocation. Then the results of these decisions need to be evaluated.

DECIDING ON EACH, F EQ ENC , AND IMPAC

■ Media selection involves finding the most cost-effective media to deliver the desired number of exposures to the target audience.

What do we mean by the desired number of exposures? Presumably, the advertiser is seeking a certain response from the target audience—for example, a certain level of product trial. The rate of product trial will depend, among other things, on the level of audience brand awareness. Suppose the rate of product trial increases at a diminishing rate with the level of audience awareness, as shown in Figure 5-11 the advertiser seeks a product trial rate of (say) T*, it will be necessary to achieve a brand awareness level of A*.

The next task is to find out how many exposures, E*, will produce a level of audience awareness of 4*. The effect of exposures on audience awareness depends on the exposures' reach, frequency, and impact:

■ Reach (R): The number of different persons or households exposed to a particular media schedule at least once during a specified time period.

■ Frequency (F): The number of times within the specified time period that an average person or household is exposed to the message.

■ Impact (I): The qualitative value of an exposure through a given medium (thus a food ad in Good Housekeeping would have a higher impact than in the Police Gazette).

Figure 5-11 hows the relationship between audience awareness and reach. Audience awareness will be greater, the higher the exposures' reach, frequency, and im-

Relationship Among Trial, Awareness, and the Exposure Function part five

Managing and Delivering Marketing Programs

	(a) Relationship between product trial rate and audience awareness level		(b) Relationship between audience awareness level and exposure reach and frequency
T*		a Awareness	Frequency = 5, Impact = 1.5 Frequency = 5, Impact = 1 1
	A Awareness		E* Reach

pact. The media planner recognizes important trade-offs among reach, frequency, and impact. Suppose the planner has an advertising budget of $1,000,000 and the cost per thousand exposures of average quality is $5. This means the advertiser can buy 200,000,000 exposures ($1,000,000 ^ [$5/1,000]). If the advertiser seeks an average exposure frequency of 10, then the advertiser can reach 20,000,000 people (200,000,000 10) with the given budget. But if the advertiser wants higher-quality media costing $10 per thousand exposures, it will be able to reach only 10,000,000 people unless it is willing to lower the desired exposure frequency.

The relationship between reach, frequency, and impact is captured in the following concepts:

■ Total number of exposures (E): This is the reach times the average frequency; that is, E = R X F. This measure is referred to as the gross rating points (GRP). If a given media schedule reaches 80 percent of the homes with an average exposure frequency of 3, the media schedule is said to have a GRP of 240 (80 x 3). If another media schedule has a GRP of 300, it is said to have more weight, but we cannot tell how this weight breaks down into reach and frequency.

■ Weighted number of exposures (WE): This is the reach times average frequency times average impact, that is WE = R X F X I.

The media planner has to figure out, with a given budget, the most cost-effective combination of reach, frequency, and impact. Reach is most important when launching new products, flanker brands, extensions of well-known brands, or infrequently purchased brands, or going after an undefined target market. Frequency is most important where there are strong competitors, a complex story to tell, high consumer resistance, or a frequent-purchase cycle.24

Many advertisers believe a target audience needs a large number of exposures for the advertising to work. Too few repetitions can be a waste, because they will hardly be noticed. Others doubt the value of high ad frequency. They believe that after people see the same ad a few times, they either act on it, get irritated by it, or stop noticing it. Krugman asserted that three exposures to an advertisement might be enough:

The first exposure is by definition unique. As with the initial exposure to anything, a "What is it?" type of cognitive response dominates the reaction. The second exposure to a stimulus . . . produces several effects. One may be the cognitive reaction that characterized the first exposure, if the audience missed much of the message the first time around More often, an evaluative "What of it?" response replaces the "What is it?" response. . . . The third exposure constitutes a reminder, if a decision to buy based on the evaluations has not been acted on. The third exposure is also the beginning of disengagement and withdrawal of attention from a completed episode.25

Krugman's thesis favoring three exposures has to be qualified. He means three actual impressions or advertising exposures—the person sees the ad three times. These exposures should not be confused with vehicle exposures. If only half the magazine readers look at magazine ads, or if the readers look at ads only every other issue, then the advertising exposure is only half of the vehicle exposures. Most research services estimate vehicle exposures, not ad exposures. A media strategist would have to buy more vehicle exposures than three to achieve Krugman's three "hits."26 Another factor arguing for repetition is that of forgetting. The job of repetition is partly to put the message back into memory. The higher the forgetting rate associated with a brand, product category, or message, the higher the warranted level of repetition. But repetition is not enough. Ads wear out and viewers tune out. Advertisers should not coast on a tired ad but insist on fresh executions by their advertising agency. For example, Du-racell can choose from more than 40 different versions of its basic ad.

CHOO ING AMONG MAJO MEDIA PE

The media planner has to know the capacity of the major media types to deliver reach, frequency, and impact. The major advertising media along with their costs, advantages, and limitations are profiled in Table 5.7.

Another reason for review is the continuous emergence of new media, such as advertorials and infomercials. Advertorials are print ads that offer editorial content and are difficult to distinguish from newspaper or magazine contents; infomercials are TV commercials that appear to be 30-minute TV shows but are advertisements for products. Advertisers have substantially increased their spending on outdoor media over the last decade. Outdoor advertising provides an excellent way to reach important local consumer segments. Cable television now reaches a majority of U.S. households and produces billions of dollars in advertising revenue a year. Cable systems make it easier to reach select groups.

Another promising new media site is the store itself. In addition to using older promotional vehicles, such as displays and special price tags, some supermarkets are selling space on their floors for company logos, experimenting with talking shelves, and introducing "videocarts," which contain a computerized screen that carries consumer-benefit information ("cauliflower is rich in vitamin C") and advertiser promotions ("20c off on White Star Tuna this week").

Ads also appear in best-selling paperback books, sports arenas, movie theaters, and movie videotapes. Written material such as annual reports, data sheets, catalogs, and newsletters increasingly carry ads. Many companies that send out monthly bills are including advertising inserts. Some companies mail audiotapes or videotapes that advertise their products to prospects. Here are some other emerging media:

■ Digital magazines (or digizines): With names like Trouble & Attitude, Word, and Launch, the latest magazines are not on the newsstand but are available on the Internet. Digizines are much cheaper to start up and operate than are print magazines. Starting a glossy publication for men aged 18 to 34 today would require at least $10 million, whereas digizine start-up costs are between $200,000 and $500,000. Still to be worked out, however, is how to price them or earn money through selling advertising.

■ Interactive TV: Combined computer, telephone, and TV hookups have now made it possible for people to participate in two-way communication with programs or information services via their television sets. Whereas home shopping networks allow customers to call in their orders, interactive TV allows consumers to use a computer keyboard to communicate directly with sellers on their TV screen. So far interactive TV technology is only in the testing phase.

■ Fax on demand: Used most by business marketers, fax-on-demand technology allows businesses to store information in a fax technology program. Customers who need information call a toll-free number, and the fax program automatically faxes the information to them within 5 minutes. Customers can access the information 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. The service can be set up for as little as $1,000, and business marketers feel that the cost savings in postage alone are worth the investment.

Rust and Oliver see proliferation of new media as hastening the death of traditional mass-media advertising as we know it. They see a greater amount of direct producer-consumer interaction, with benefits to both parties. Producers gain more information about their customers and can customize products and messages better; customers gain greater control because they can choose whether to receive an advertising message or not.27 See the Marketing for the Millennium "Advertising on the Web: Companies Grab the Brass Ring."

Given the abundant media, the media planner must first decide on how to allocate the budget to the major media types. In launching a new biscuit, Pillsbury might decide to allocate $3 million to daytime network television, $2 million to women's magazines, $1 million to daily newspapers in 20 major markets, and $50,000 to maintaining its home page on the Internet.

ELEC ING PECIFIC EHICLE

The media planner must search for the most cost-effective media vehicles within each chosen media type. The advertiser who decides to buy 30 seconds of advertising on network television can pay $154,000 for a popular prime-time show such as Law and Order, $650,000 for especially popular programs like Frasier and ER, or $1.3 million for an event like the Super Bowl.28 The planner has to rely on media measurement services that provide estimates of audience size, composition, and media cost.

Audience size has several possible measures:

■ Circulation: The number of physical units carrying the advertising.

■ Audience: The number of people exposed to the vehicle. (If the vehicle has pass-on readership, then the audience is larger than circulation.)

■ Effective audience: The number of people with target audience characteristics exposed to the vehicle.

■ Effective ad-exposed audience: The number of people with target audience characteristics who actually saw the ad.

Media planners calculate the cost per thousand persons reached by a vehicle. If a full-page, four-color ad in Newsweek costs $84,000 and Newsweek's estimated readership is 3 million people, the cost of exposing the ad to 1,000 persons is approximately $28. The same ad in Business Week may cost $30,000 but reach only 775,000 persons—at a cost per thousand of $39. The media planner ranks each magazine by cost per thousand and favors magazines with the lowest cost per thousand for reaching target consumers. The magazines themselves often put together a "reader profile" for their advertisers, summarizing the characteristics of the magazine's readers with respect to age, income, residence, marital status, and leisure activities.

Several adjustments have to be applied to the cost-per-thousand measure. First, the measure should be adjusted for audience quality. For a baby lotion ad, a magazine read by 1 million young mothers would have an exposure value of 1 million; if read by 1 million old men, it would have almost a zero exposure value. Second, the exposure value should be adjusted for the audience-attention probability. Readers of Vogue pay more attention to ads than do readers of Newsweek. Third, the exposure value should be adjusted for the magazine's editorial quality (prestige and believability). Fourth, the exposure value should be adjusted for the magazine's ad placement policies and extra services (such as regional or occupational editions and lead-time requirements).

part five Media planners are increasingly using more sophisticated measures of effective-

Managing and ness and employing them in mathematical models to arrive at the best media mix.

Delivering Meeting Many advertising agencies use a computer program to select the initial media and

590^ pr0grams then make further improvements based on subjective factors.29

brand, while not hurting seasonal consumption. Other soft-drink manufacturers started to do the same, with the net result that a more balanced consumption pattern occurred. The previous concentration of advertising had created a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Forrester has proposed using his "industrial dynamics" methodology to test cyclical advertising policies.30 He believes that advertising has a delayed impact on consumer awareness; awareness has a delayed impact on factory sales; and factory sales have a delayed impact on advertising expenditures. These time-lag relationships can be studied and formulated mathematically into a computer-simulation model. The model can simulate alternative timing strategies to assess varying impacts on company sales, costs, and profits. Rao and Miller also developed a lag (delay) model to relate a brand's share to advertising and promotional expenditures on a market-by-market basis. They tested their model successfully with 5 Lever brands in 15 districts, relating market share to dollars spent on TV, print, price-off, and trade promotions.31 Kuehn developed a model to explore how advertising should be timed for frequently purchased, highly seasonal, low-cost grocery products.32 He showed that the appropriate timing pattern depends on the degree of advertising carryover and the amount of habitual behavior in customer brand choice. Carryover refers to the rate at which the effect of an advertising expenditure wears out with the passage of time. A carryover of 0.75 per month means that the current effect of a past advertising expenditure is 75 percent of its level in the previous month. Habitual behavior indicates how much brand holdover occurs independent of the level of advertising. High habitual purchasing, say 0.90, means that 90 percent of the buyers repeat their brand choice in the next period.

Kuehn found that when there is no advertising carryover or habitual purchasing, the decision maker is justified in using a percentage-of-sales rule to budget advertising. The optimal timing pattern for advertising expenditures coincides with the expected seasonal pattern of industry sales. But if there is advertising carryover or habitual purchasing, it would be better to time advertising to lead sales. Advertising expenditures should peak before sales peak. Lead time should be greater, the higher the carryover. Furthermore, the advertising expenditures should be steadier, the greater the habitual purchasing.

The microscheduling problem calls for allocating advertising expenditures within a short period to obtain maximum impact.

Suppose the firm decides to buy 30 radio spots in the month of September. Figure 5-12 shows several possible patterns. The left side shows that advertising messages for the month can be concentrated ("burst" advertising), dispersed continuously throughout the month, or dispersed intermittently. The top side shows that the advertising messages can be beamed with a level, rising, falling, or alternating frequency.

The most effective pattern depends upon the communication objectives in relation to the nature of the product, target customers, distribution channels, and other marketing factors. Consider the following cases:

A retailer wants to announce a preseason sale of ski equipment. She thinks the target buyers need to hear the message only once or twice. Her objective is to maximize reach, not frequency. She decides to concentrate the messages on sale days at a level rate but to vary the time of day to avoid the same audiences. She uses pattern 1.

A muffler manufacturer-distributor wants to keep his name before the public. Yet he does not want his advertising to be too continuous because only 3 to 5 percent of the cars on the road need a new muffler at any given time. He chooses intermittent advertising. Furthermore, he recognizes that Fridays are paydays, so he sponsors more messages on Friday. He uses pattern 12.

Programs part five

Managing and Delivering Marketing

The timing pattern should consider three factors. Buyer turnover expresses the rate at which new buyers enter the market; the higher this rate, the more continuous the advertising should be. Purchase frequency is the number of times during the period that the average buyer buys the product; the higher the purchase frequency, the more con-

Level Rising Falling Alternating

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
Concentrated	1	i		â
	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)
Continuous
Intermittent	(9)	(10)	(11)	(12)	Number of messages per month 1
	inn	■ III	III.	Month FIGURE Classification of Advertising Timing Patterns tinuous the advertising should be. The forgetting rate is the rate at which the buyer forgets the brand; the higher the forgetting rate, the more continuous the advertising should be. In launching a new product, the advertiser has to choose among ad continuity, concentration, flighting, and pulsing. Continuity is achieved by scheduling exposures evenly throughout a given period. Generally, advertisers use continuous advertising in expanding market situations, with frequently purchased items, and in tightly defined buyer categories. Concentration calls for spending all the advertising dollars in a single period. This makes sense for products with one selling season or holiday. FHght-ing calls for advertising for some period, followed by a hiatus with no advertising, followed by a second period of advertising activity. It is used when funding is limited, the purchase cycle is relatively infrequent, and with seasonal items. Pulsing is continuous advertising at low-weight levels reinforced periodically by waves of heavier activity. Pulsing draws upon the strength of continuous advertising and flights to create a compromise scheduling strategy.33 Those who favor pulsing feel that the audience will learn the message more thoroughly, and money can be saved. ■ A -B Anheuser-Busch's research indicated that Budweiser could substantially reduce advertising in a particular market and experience no adverse sales effect for at least a year and a half. Then the company could introduce a six-month burst of advertising and restore the previous growth rate. This analysis led Budweiser to adopt a pulsing advertising strategy. DECIDING ON GEOG APHICAL ALLOCA ION A company has to decide how to allocate its advertising budget over space as well as over time. The company makes "national buys" when it places ads on national TV networks or in nationally circulated magazines. It makes "spot buys" when it buys TV time in just a few markets or in regional editions of magazines. These markets are called areas of dominant influence (ADIs) or designated marketing areas (DMAs), and ads reach a market 40 to 60 miles from a city center. The company makes "local buys" when it advertises in local newspapers, radio, or outdoor sites. Consider the following example: ■ P a H Pizza Hut levies a 4 percent advertising fee on its franchisees. It spends half of its budget on national media and half on regional and local media. Some national advertising is wasted because of low penetration in certain areas. Thus, even though Pizza Hut may have a 30 percent share of the franchised pizza market nationally, this share may vary from 5 percent in some cities to 70 percent in others. The franchisees in the higher market-share cities want much more advertising money spent in their areas. But Pizza Hut doesn't have enough money to cover the whole nation by region. National advertising offers efficiency but fails to address the different local situations effectively. Good planning and control of advertising depend on measures of advertising effectiveness. Yet the amount of fundamental research on advertising effectiveness is appallingly small. According to Forrester, "probably no more than VS of 1% of total advertising expenditure is used to achieve an enduring understanding of how to spend the other 99.8%."34 Most measurement of advertising effectiveness deals with specific ads and campaigns. Most of the money is spent by agencies on pretesting ads, and much less is spent on evaluating their effectiveness. A proposed campaign should be tested in one or a few cities first and its impact evaluated before rolling it out nationally. One company tested its new campaign first in Phoenix. The campaign bombed, and the company saved all the money that it would have spent by going national. Most advertisers try to measure the communication effect of an ad—that is, its potential effect on awareness, knowledge, or preference. They would also like to measure the ad's sales effect.

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